Capital markets have rewarded investors over the long term, and having an investment approach you can stick with may better prepare you for the next crisis and its aftermath. It will soon be the 10-year anniversary of when, in early October 2007, the S&P 500 Index hit what was its highest point before losing more than half its value over the next year and a half during the global financial crisis. Over the coming weeks and months, as other anniversaries of major crisis-related events pass … [Read more...] about Lessons for the Next Crisis
Haphazardly selecting stocks by the toss of a dart is not an efficient or reliable way to invest. In the world of investment management there is an oft-discussed idea that blindfolded monkeys throwing darts at pages of stock listings can select portfolios that will do just as well, if not better, than both the market and the average portfolio constructed by professional money managers. If this is true, why might it be the case? THE DART BOARD Exhibit 1 shows the components of the … [Read more...] about Quit Monkeying Around!
Unlike bond prices, which tend to go down when yields go up, stock prices might rise or fall with changes in interest rates. Should stock investors worry about changes in interest rates? Research shows that, like stock prices, changes in interest rates and bond prices are largely unpredictable. It follows that an investment strategy based upon attempting to exploit these sorts of changes isn't likely to be a fruitful endeavor. Despite the unpredictable nature of interest rate changes, … [Read more...] about When Rates Go Up, Do Stocks Go Down?
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is an absurd one. —Voltaire "The market hates uncertainty" has been a common enough saying in recent years, but how logical is it? There are many different aspects to uncertainty, some that can be measured and some that cannot. Uncertainty is an unchangeable condition of existence. As individuals, we can feel more or less uncertain, but that is a distinctly human phenomenon. Rather than ebbing and flowing with investor sentiment, … [Read more...] about The Uncertainty Paradox
Since the 1950s, there have been numerous breakthroughs in the field of financial economics that have benefited both society and investors. One early example, resulting from research in the 1950s, is the insight that diversification can increase an investor's wealth. Another example, resulting from research in the 1960s, is that market prices contain up-to-the-minute, relevant information about an investment's expected return and risk. This means that market prices provide our best estimate of … [Read more...] about Evolution of Financial Research: The Profitability Premium
Trivia time: how many stocks make up the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index (a widely used benchmark for the US equity market)? While the logical guess might be 5,000, as of December 31, 2016, the index actually contained around 3,600 names. In fact, the last time this index contained 5,000 or more companies was at the end of 2005. This mirrors the overall trend in the US stock market. In the past two decades there has been a decline in the number of US-listed, publicly traded companies. … [Read more...] about Going Global: A Look at Public Company Listings